Hobbes in Sudan. The author posits what a world would look like if the US was truly isolationist. The best piece I've seen on this one was published ages ago by John Hawkins. Find it here. I don't want an isolationist US though it would, in many ways, be easier and cheaper than what we're doing now. We would still be roundly hated and ridiculed the world over. That is our lot in life. If we were to withdraw back home as many a Democrat would like to see these days, we would be at war very quickly. The Middle East would, as Hawkins noted, explode. I mean in the most real sense. If we came home from Iraq tomorrow, the vacuum would lead to a failed state like Haiti or Somalia. It would be permenantly fractured and broken. It is unlikely they would every export oil in any significant quantity. Whomever held the fields would be constantly defending it from sabotage and attack. Iran would spill over and try to reclaim them. Who knows what success they would have. Perhaps they would win but they'd be facing the same insurgency we see now only moreso. Israel would be fighting for it's life and fighting hard. They can withdraw behind their wall but only for a time. The mad mullahs or some other nutter would fling larger and larger bombs and rockets over that wall which would lead to real reprisals. Not the minor, precision strikes they're doing now. Without the US hand to restrain them, total war would soon be the order of the day.
As noted, China would spread outward. They'd have a hard time taking and holding Taiwan but it would be a hell of a fireworks show. The Taiwanese would probably sink one or two VLCC's in the only operable channels which would kill Chinese oil imports. String of Pearls or not, they would have to reroute sea traffic to bring their VLCCs to either a very northern point for intake to they'd have to move to take some real estate in South Asia.
Combine that with the ever increasing piracy South of Indonesia and they'd have their hands full.
Russia would continue it's long, slow slide into alcoholism, dysfunction and authoritarianism.
France explodes with Muslim rage and the government falls. The Sixth Republic makes Le Pen look like a piker.
Germany gets nervous and re-militarizes. Czechs begin sweating and begin calling their friends in Brighton Beach inquiring about exteneded stays and political asylum.
Africa implodes in civil and sectarian war. Those not killed by violence die from disease. Africa becomes the largest game preserve in the world within a few decades as it will be uninhabited.
Dystopian to be sure but as bad as American hedgemony might be, the alternative is worse.
As noted, China would spread outward. They'd have a hard time taking and holding Taiwan but it would be a hell of a fireworks show. The Taiwanese would probably sink one or two VLCC's in the only operable channels which would kill Chinese oil imports. String of Pearls or not, they would have to reroute sea traffic to bring their VLCCs to either a very northern point for intake to they'd have to move to take some real estate in South Asia.
Combine that with the ever increasing piracy South of Indonesia and they'd have their hands full.
Russia would continue it's long, slow slide into alcoholism, dysfunction and authoritarianism.
France explodes with Muslim rage and the government falls. The Sixth Republic makes Le Pen look like a piker.
Germany gets nervous and re-militarizes. Czechs begin sweating and begin calling their friends in Brighton Beach inquiring about exteneded stays and political asylum.
Africa implodes in civil and sectarian war. Those not killed by violence die from disease. Africa becomes the largest game preserve in the world within a few decades as it will be uninhabited.
Dystopian to be sure but as bad as American hedgemony might be, the alternative is worse.
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