Are the sands shifting?

Some genius said:


One of us is completely nuts. I think we'll find out in November and I really hope it isn't me.


Perhaps I'm not crazy. Consider this:


If I am right and these polls have been weighted using the wrong driver (historically it has been party driven) then Obama is not in the lead and has no hope of catching up.


This guy is going to be either hailed as the worlds greatest tea leaf reader or a monster raving loon. Either way, his fate and mine are not too far off. I have much less factual reason to back up my assertion (which is why I have so little faith in it). I am like some sort of political phrenologist reading the bumps as indicators of something below the hardened shell of political polls to find what lies beneath. In a month we'll know if I need good recipes for crow or I can be the new bookmaker at Tradesports. Either way the suspense is killing me.

h/t: American Digest

Comments

Anonymous said…
I vote monster loon

AJStrata
3:51 PM
BettyDuffy said…
Found your blog through conversion diary...a fellow Duffy who hates felt banners.
I'm enjoying the read.
bettyduffy.blogspot.com
3:52 PM
The Last Ephor said…
Welcome Betty. Coincidentally, I have an aunt named Betty.
9:21 AM
Anonymous said…
I don't know if he's a loon or not but I remember the exit polling on the day of the 2004 election -- all had Kerry winning and by large margins. I don't remember quite as well the polling done up to election day but wasn't Kerry leading in those polls as well?
11:14 AM
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