Daily Roundup

The Brits are fond of decrying the US for, well, pretty much everything. We were alternately lambasted or laughed at for our mission orientation during patrols in the Sunni Triangle and elsewhere while the Brits were patrolling the Shia zones with a much lower security profile. The Americans were depicted as bullies and ignorant bulls in the china shop. The Brits were so much more sophisticated and tempered by their experience in Northern Ireland that they didn’t need to wear helmets etc. Now it looks like there may be more to that than meets the eye. This article
says that the Brits, at the highest levels, struck a deal with Mookie to keep their own safe. They stayed on the sidelines during the assault on Basra and Mookie’s boys wouldn’t try to kill them. There’s a word for this; betrayal. Our oldest, staunchest ally has cut a deal with the enemy behind our back. To me, the “special relationship” has suffered a serious blow. Gordon Brown has hard questions to answer. If he’s going to risk 60 years of unprecedented cooperation between two of the most powerful nations on Earth he better have a damn good explanation. If the roles were reversed I’d be baying for blood from our own politicians including the President.


Some believe the anthrax was not American.
Since I know almost nothing of biology I’m free to say he makes a strong, compelling case. I do believe that law enforcement types are under pressure to close a case, not get it right. Any case with a profile this high its even more intense. Now that this guy has offed himself he’s given them the case wrapped in a bow. This will be another one of those cases that will be endlessly talked about and the subject of conspiracy theories will grow with time. I’m sure when I’m in my late hundreds they’ll open some archive after the fall of the House of Saud and we’ll find out that there’s more to this story than we thought.

The Cold War is finally over. It is said that Generals always fight the last war over again. Now that the future of war is likely to be low intensity guerrilla and insurgent campaigns we will finally see a shift in both doctrine and order of battle to meet that need. If this continues as indicated the whole of the armed forces will be reoriented. Look for piggies on the hill to squeal as they look for a spot at the trough.

Bill refuses to say Obama is ready. Why do you think that is? He hems and haws but I think he’s holding out hope that either Hillary will grab the mantle this year or that Obama fails in the fall so Hillary can run again in 2008. Otherwise she’s out of luck until 2016 and that’s really pushing it for her.

You wanna talk about obscene windfall profits?

Aramco can quench its gargantuan thirst for development: It's easily the most profitable company on the planet. While results are closely held, Aramco stands to net, after amortization of capital costs, roughly $200 billion a year on revenue in excess of $350 billion. Last year oil minister Ali Al-Naimi told reporters that the average barrel of Saudi oil costs just $2 to produce. It sells for $130.

Last year they produced 3.4 billion barrels of crude oil. If we extrapolate that: (3.4 * $128 = $435.2B). That’s a rough estimate in that it does not account for all revenue streams (like gas and petrochemicals). Back to the article:

Why diversify out of oil? Take that same barrel and run it through an integrated chemicals plant, and the outputs fetch more like $500. "Aramco builds new fields to satisfy the world," says Jean-François Seznec, a visiting professor at Georgetown University with 30 years' experience in Saudi project finance. "The push into petrochemicals is to finance a new economy and new society."

So they have more incentive to create chemicals than gasoline.

I hear you asking, “Duffy, what’s your point.” Simply this: When you are whining about “windfall profits” to oil companies like ExxonMobile remember they are small time. They are making 1/10th of state owned and run behemoths like SaudiAramco. You want to blame someone for high gasoline prices blame the following:

1. SaudiAramco/OPEC for keeping production flat
2. India and China for growing their economies
3. Environmentalists who have effectively blocked any new refineries or nuclear power plants from being built
4. Congresscritters for requiring 50+ blends of gas nationwide and taxing the hell out of us
5. Yourself. You drive too much, too fast and don’t take proper care of your car.

I hate to travel. Anyone with kids (who is not insane) will also. Similarly, traveling for business (the only kind I do) is a soul sucking, will sapping, existential experience. Usually I’m taking The Great Lumbering Behemoth north and occasionally flying. Traveling like this, however, is another matter entirely. Hell, I'd be happy to be one of those consultants who flies hither and yon for business.

My favorite sports quote of the week.

Curious that this didn’t make the papers. Can you imagine if Barry were president? Olberman would be sobbing uncontrollably at his desk. CNN would have personally interviewed every single supporter. The New York Times would have dedicated the entire issue of the day’s paper to Obama’s awesomeness.


This is not good. One of two things is happening: either drug lords do, in fact, have Mexican military uniforms and equipment and are posing as same, or they’re working for the drug runners. I suspect the former is much more likely than the latter. Some of these clashes are likely due to confusion about which side of the border they’re actually on. Sometimes the Mexicans probably think they’re on home soil and are shooting at US personnel thinking they are violating their sovereignty. However, many are likely not.

Any President worth anything would be on the hotline to Mexico with a very stern warning that one more potshot at US forces and the hammer is coming down.

Any Governor worth anything would deploy the National Guard to the border in the wake of said shooting.

Any national news outlet worth anything would be running this story down as hard and fast as possible without fear of being branded anti-immigrant or whatever.


You thought your teenage rebellion made your Dad mad? Try this on for size.

I don’t doubt his sincerity. It probably took quite a bit of soul searching. The thing about Islam is that its not just a religion it’s a lifestyle, a culture. More like leaving the Amish than being a lapsed Catholic.

"I know that I'm endangering my life and am even liable to lose my father, but I hope that he'll understand this and that God will give him and my family patience and willingness to open their eyes to Jesus and to Christianity. Maybe one day I'll be able to return to Palestine and to Ramallah with Jesus, in the Kingdom of God."

"You Jews should be aware: You will never, but never have peace with Hamas. Islam, as the ideology that guides them, will not allow them to achieve a peace agreement with the Jews. They believe that tradition says that the Prophet Mohammed fought against the Jews and that therefore they must continue to fight them to the death."

Is that the justification for the suicide attacks?

"More than that. An entire society sanctifies death and the suicide terrorists. In Palestinian culture a suicide terrorist becomes a hero, a martyr. Sheikhs tell their students about the 'heroism of the shaheeds.'"

The surge has failed so miserably that Mookie is calling it quits. No wonder Obama wants to surge into Afghanistan.

Now this: Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr plans to announce Friday that he will disarm his Mahdi Army, which was raining mortars on Baghdad's Green Zone as recently as April. Coupled with the near-total defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq, this means the U.S. no longer faces any significant organized military foe in the country. It also marks a major setback for Iran, which had used the Mahdi Army as one of its primary vehicles for extending its influence in Iraq.

Suddenly being green is not cool any more

As the credit crunch bites, environmental policies are being ditched. But oddly we are doing better at saving the planet

Julie Burchill can't stand them. According to her new book, Not in my Name: A Compendium of Modern Hypocrisy, she thinks all environmentalists are po-faced, unsexy, public school alumni who drivel on about the end of the world because they don't want the working classes to have any fun, go on foreign holidays or buy cheap clothes.

A woman after my own heart….

But the problem for the green lobby isn't that it has been overrun by “toffs”: it's the chilly economic climate that has frozen the shoots of environmentalism. Espousing the green life, with its misshapen vegetables and non-disposable nappies, is increasingly being seen as a luxury by everyone.

Precisely. Ever been to Whole Foods?

The vast new organic Whole Foods Store on Kensington High Street in London is so quiet you can hear the cheese breathe in the specially designed glass room. Meanwhile the demand for takeaway pizzas and McDonald's has risen as people find the cheapest way to eat.

I’ve not seen them quiet here (I was in one yesterday by happenstance…) but they are damn well expensive.

It's not just the economic downturn that has harmed the green order. People have become wary of environmental causes that can turn out to do more harm than good. They don't want wind turbines marching across Britain's moors when nuclear power stations can do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They worry that washing and bleaching all those non-disposable nappies may be damaging the ozone layer, that the massive incentives for biofuels have distorted the world food market, and that green taxes are actually stealth taxes.

I wholeheartedly agree that we should have been building nuclear power plants a generation ago and ought to be full speed ahead now but I take issue with the “stealth” part. Taxes are taxes and there’s usually little stealth about them.

It's the downturn that has made greenery look unappetising - but it may yet prove to do more than anything to save the planet.

Moral of the story: Markets work. Hairbrained hippy ecopolicies do not.