The Next War in Gaza

This article talks about the upcoming war in Gaza as all but inevitable. Key excerpts:

"We are going to make a massive ground operation in Gaza," warns Yuval Steinitz, until recently chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, in a recent interview. Underlying the remark is the sense that the IDF will not allow itself to be surprised again by events, much less humiliated twice by ostensibly weaker foes.

The rise of Hamas, with ties to Iran and potentially a secure territorial base of its own, is an even greater long-term threat to the brittle regime of Hosni Mubarak than it is to Israel.
The political heat between the two sides was noticeably raised last week when Hamas Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar reportedly warned Egypt that if it failed to open its border with Gaza "there will be no border." Equally extraordinary was that the statement was widely reprinted in the Egyptian state media, playing into the broad suspicion that the Brotherhood, as a religious organization, is fundamentally anti-Egypt in the national sense. "Now the line is, 'No more foreign ministry,'" says an Egyptian source, suggesting the Mubarak regime is quickly moving away from diplomacy to more aggressive forms of persuasion with Hamas.
If Egypt or Israel had the luxury of choice they would abandon Gaza to its own miserable devices, or--even better--to each other. But that's not how it works in the Middle East. The war for Gaza is coming, no matter who does the fighting. Whoever stays out of it wins.

Egypt has been riding the tiger for years. We've supported them and without that support, Egypt would have long ago fallen to the radical elements locally. The Copts would find themselves either fleeing or dead. If Egypt falls to jihadism, we have major problems. However, propping up Mubarek for another decade doesn't make sense either. I really think we're in a bind in that regard. Either we support democracy, warts and all, or we don't. We can't not support it in Egypt because we don't like the outcome. I think if Egypt did become another Iran, it would be tragic but it's also inevitable.

Propping up Mubarek festers public opinion against him and against us. Letting them fall to their own devices is problematic but in the very long run, it will likely sort itself out. They haven't forgotten the Lybian example. They may need a reminder, but the real danger is to Israel. Egypt and Gaza make good staging ground for attacks on Israel. Israel unrestrained by American hands can deal with them easily. Egypt and her proxies are no match for the IDF and they know it.

Ultimately, the best we can hope for is the continued red on red Hamas vs. Fatah until they've destroyed each other.