The biggest building site on earth. No doubt. I've been keeping an eye on this one since I first heard about it (I think that was early 2002). Dubai is building at a breakneck pace as a means to set themselves up as the Hong Kong of the Middle East. They're running out of oil and they've known in for a long time. They know they're going to have to make money somehow. Originally, they were confining their scope to trade. Importing, exporting, banking and the like. They later realized they were primed to become the choice destination for vacation in the Gulf. Pristine beaches, alcohol available, central location and great shopping make a good case for your average Saudi to go there.

I wonder if they're shooting themselves in the foot by doing so much at once. That much construction can only increase the cost of labor and supplies which drives the prices of the construction artificially high. That, in turn, leads to higher prices for these places. Combine that with the restriction on ownership. When you buy, you don't own it. You're signing a 99 year lease. Non-locals are not allowed to own property (and to a large extent, a business) in the UAE.

The UAE nationals are also wealthy but simultaneously unskilled. They recieve a percentage of oil revenue as well as stipends for building houses, getting married and having children. They own everything and do nothing. Sounds great until you realize you're completely reliant on imported Western (and to a lesser extent South Asian) talent to run the show. If they leave (or you kick them out) you have major problems.

The solution was to create an "Emiratization" program which requires businesses to employ a certain percentage of locals in various positions. Affirmative action for Emiratis if you will. Shortly after implementation, they found that Emiratis cannot be bothered to apply for any but the most senior positions. Mid level job openings were frowned upon and entry level jobs were laughed at. Good luck finding a "local" (as the expats call them) to take a job as a secretary. After much wailing and gnashing of teeth the UAE government launched a campaign to get Emiratis to apply for these jobs with no success. They later said the progam would be a good guideline but not enforable by law and the plan would be revised later. (Read: they shelved it)

I use the above anecdote as a good indictor of the troubles that Arab/Muslim states are having vis a vis liberalization and modernity. Reconciling those two forces with tribalism, tradition and faith is not easy. The UAE represents an excellent model for its neighbors and their success or failure after the oil runs out will be the litmus test. Succeed or fail it will send a strong message to their neighbors.

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