Westhawk: "China is working behind the scenes to develop a diplomatic compromise that will defer Japan’s proposed resolution and thus any action against North Korea (and Iran). Even if China papers over the problem this time, it is too late for China to repair its reputation. By consistently protecting its roguish friends, China is only hardening a growing alliance against it.

Observers will study China’s decisions and try to determine whether there is some hidden cleverness behind them, or bureaucratic inertia, or just ordinary stupidity. Experienced statesmen will ignore such examinations and instead focus on China’s actual decisions. And then respond, as Japan, the U.S., and others will, to protect their interests."


Westhawk correctly points out that the Chinese have lost their reputation, their "face" if you will. Something that is very important in Asian culture and quite often underappreciated in the West. We have a concept of "face" as well but it's not on the same level of importance or as nuanced.

North Korea's damage to China's "face" will not soon be forgotten and is a very big gamble for Kim. He has wagered big on his missile tests and as it stands now, it looks like he's going to lose.

Japan's response of increased militarization is the last thing China wanted and North Korea expected. They have also closed rank with America as well. A wise move that essential costs Japan nothing domestically now.

Westhawk also asks whether China's actions in response are based on "hidden cleverness, bureaucratic inertia or plain stupidity". If I had to guess, I suspect some of each with most of the weight on inertia. The Chinese are not stupid but they are in a bind. To support the DPRK now would make them look foolish and toothless. To reign them in would be to risk a collapse of the DPRK and a flood of inevitable refugees across the river. Anarchy would ensue as the power vacuum is filled. No outcome would be good for anybody. If one of Kim's generals takes over, it could merely be business as usual but with new murals and songs.

Professional pontificators have been predicting the DPRK's demise for more than a decade since the death of Kim The Elder as his son was seen as weak and would be a puppet of the military. Not so, as we have seen. He's a wiley guy but really only has one tool in the toolbox. The rattling sabre.

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