Will Iraq split? Michael J. Totten thinks so. My take? Maybe. I think the Kurds are far more predisposed to federalism than their neighbors and with good reason. However, I think the Arabs (both Sunni and Shia) will have to make some significant concessions wrt to oil revenue and Kirkuk. Which would be better? A fractuous unstable Iraq or a stable Kurdistan and Iraq? Granted those are not the only choices but its clear the Kurds can stand on their own without any help. This would makes the Turks insane which, given their perfidity in the runup to the 2003 invasion, bothers me not the least.

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