This post over at Delaware Watch talks about the growing insurgency and how Al-Qaeda is now something akin to the IRA in Northern Ireland. That they have popular support and are standing for elections and winning. This according to this article in The Telegraph.
But this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this this point to the opposite conclusion.
NB: the last link is almost 3 years ago so it shows how far back the rift between Iraqis and Al Qaeda goes.
Indeed the Telegraph article ends thusly:
"Al-Qa'eda's decision to engage in the political process in Anbar is believed to reflect factors that have undermined its effectiveness in the region.
The decision last autumn to establish permanent military bases in Qaim and Hit containing US and Iraqi forces has limited its ability to control the surrounding areas, while a series of operations by American marines disrupted its networks by destroying safe houses and killing or arresting its members."
So, their operational capacity has been destroyed by the Marines. They have degraded their human and capital resources to a point where they are no longer and effective fighting force. The only way they have any sort of influence is to stand for elections. Where exactly is the problem? Al-Qaeda knows they erred badly when they began bombing Muslims. That turned the tide against them. They have been hurt so badly, Bin Laden is even calling for a truce. The winning side is never the one suing for peace.
Update: I've added more links. I also realize that many of them are essentially the same story but my point still holds.
But this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this this point to the opposite conclusion.
NB: the last link is almost 3 years ago so it shows how far back the rift between Iraqis and Al Qaeda goes.
Indeed the Telegraph article ends thusly:
"Al-Qa'eda's decision to engage in the political process in Anbar is believed to reflect factors that have undermined its effectiveness in the region.
The decision last autumn to establish permanent military bases in Qaim and Hit containing US and Iraqi forces has limited its ability to control the surrounding areas, while a series of operations by American marines disrupted its networks by destroying safe houses and killing or arresting its members."
So, their operational capacity has been destroyed by the Marines. They have degraded their human and capital resources to a point where they are no longer and effective fighting force. The only way they have any sort of influence is to stand for elections. Where exactly is the problem? Al-Qaeda knows they erred badly when they began bombing Muslims. That turned the tide against them. They have been hurt so badly, Bin Laden is even calling for a truce. The winning side is never the one suing for peace.
Update: I've added more links. I also realize that many of them are essentially the same story but my point still holds.
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