I read Emirati's blog regularly. He has an interesting perspective and picks topics that are often very engaging. His latest post, however, seems to me to be off the mark. I think he makes some huge leaps of logic that are unsubstantiated and unlikely. I posted the following in the comments:
When was America an isolationist state? We've been intervening all over the globe since I was born. We haven't been isolationist in any meaningful sense since the late 1930's. (There was some sort of bombing or other in Hawaii that put an end to that).
How do you define "peak"? The US military is more powerful than ever as is our economy. We are engaged in a war but our economy has not suffered. No nation on Earth can stand with us in terms of military, economic or cultural influence. Not even China. They have a huge army but their training and equipment are poor. Moreover their naval power and technological implementation pale in comparison.
Japan had unchecked military might in Asia in the 30's and 40's but economically, they peaked in the late 1980's.
China is indeed, buying time to build itself up but they have many problems that are often overlooked. China only grows so long as their labor is cheap. With the quickly growing economy, you have a burgeoning middle class. This is why they keep moving large scale labor facilities westward to tap the poorer sections of the country. The middle class is now digging in their heels and they don't want to work for pennies a day. Even in the west there have been riots by workers about payment and conditions. This is highly problematic. You also overlook the dependence that China has on us. Without our hard currency coming in for the goods they produce, they're in deep trouble. China is also consuming oil at a rapidly increasing rate. This problem compounds itself. Oil is a commodity and their increase in consumption (along with India's) affects the global price rise. Thus they pay more and more for marginally more consumption. That's a big reason they're moving very quickly toward deploying nuclear reactors to compensate.
Asian states increasing military expenditure? Maybe but not enough to be meaningful to anyone but their nearest neighbor. The US spends more than the next 5 nations combined on it's military. Japan is constitutionally prohibited from having an armed forces for anything other than defense. China has been building for years and will continue. South Korea built up it's forces long ago to keep the crazed troll to their north above the 38th parallel. Pakistan and India have been in a race for the bomb that has produced two nuclear nations. Iran has an army as neccessary to keep Iraq out for the last 30 years. Africa is a basket case and nobody down there is going field any sort of armed force that will have to be taken seriously. The middle east won't build because the autocrats don't trust military power. Even in the hands of family, it's too dangerous. There's a reason the US has been in Saudi for decades. We need their oil and they need our protection. (Thankfully, it appears those days are coming to an end). Who does that leave? Turkey? Egypt? Syria?
Our exportation of manufacturing has not hurt our economy. Quite the opposite. We are now creating more and more knowledge workers rather than industrial ones. It allows our companies to leverage cheap labor and lower taxation to sell goods below previous prices. Simple economics. Europe, however, is in trouble for all the reasons outlined. They are demographically in dire straits. Protectionism and confiscatory taxation has killed innovation and industry. It has created a generation of inveterate spongers who live off the dole and expect the state to provide them with everything.
You struggle to figure out how American military might will be eclipsed and for good reason. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. The Chinese have been making strides but again, we're still outpacing them and they can't catch up. They will never be able to take Taiwan. They cannot move the troops across the strait safely. Taiwan has a formidable submarine fleet that would sink their troop and cargo carriers. Their ASW planes and bombers would punish surface and subs alike while the fighters gave them cover. They also have a 200,000 man standing army and 1.5 million in reserves. ALL of these units are focused on repelling an army that invades by sea. Without US help, Taiwan would hold off China. With our help, they have no chance whatsoever. The other problem is that same Taiwanese subfleet need only to sink one or two VLCC's in the deep water channels off China's coast and they're doomed. No more oil in or out save pipelines. They'll never finish their "string of pearls" strategy fast enough to cover for that contingency. Democracy in China is very likely long term. Capitalism has arrived and the "one country, two systems" is quickly falling away. They could end up with some sort of autocracy like Russia under Putin but 25 years is a long way away and making projections out that far is dicey at best.
American withdrawal from the Middle East doesn't mean we give up our committment to Israeli security. The new Iraqi government is already talking about establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. That would certainly change things. In no way, will Israel ever be "easily invaded" to think so is simply daft. They have very very will trained and equipped troops. Do you not remember the Six Day War? They are also a nuclear power. Do you have any doubt that an invading nation would not be on the receveing end of a nuclear bomb if things start to go badly for Israel?
Iran and India as allies? Not very likely. Iran is a theocracy and India is run by and populated with kuffar/polytheists/infidels. Not going to happen. The US is strengthening it's ties with India for very good strategic reason, not least of which is China. Turkey isn't going to be rebuilding anything approaching an empire. They have enough trouble on their own.
What do you think?
When was America an isolationist state? We've been intervening all over the globe since I was born. We haven't been isolationist in any meaningful sense since the late 1930's. (There was some sort of bombing or other in Hawaii that put an end to that).
How do you define "peak"? The US military is more powerful than ever as is our economy. We are engaged in a war but our economy has not suffered. No nation on Earth can stand with us in terms of military, economic or cultural influence. Not even China. They have a huge army but their training and equipment are poor. Moreover their naval power and technological implementation pale in comparison.
Japan had unchecked military might in Asia in the 30's and 40's but economically, they peaked in the late 1980's.
China is indeed, buying time to build itself up but they have many problems that are often overlooked. China only grows so long as their labor is cheap. With the quickly growing economy, you have a burgeoning middle class. This is why they keep moving large scale labor facilities westward to tap the poorer sections of the country. The middle class is now digging in their heels and they don't want to work for pennies a day. Even in the west there have been riots by workers about payment and conditions. This is highly problematic. You also overlook the dependence that China has on us. Without our hard currency coming in for the goods they produce, they're in deep trouble. China is also consuming oil at a rapidly increasing rate. This problem compounds itself. Oil is a commodity and their increase in consumption (along with India's) affects the global price rise. Thus they pay more and more for marginally more consumption. That's a big reason they're moving very quickly toward deploying nuclear reactors to compensate.
Asian states increasing military expenditure? Maybe but not enough to be meaningful to anyone but their nearest neighbor. The US spends more than the next 5 nations combined on it's military. Japan is constitutionally prohibited from having an armed forces for anything other than defense. China has been building for years and will continue. South Korea built up it's forces long ago to keep the crazed troll to their north above the 38th parallel. Pakistan and India have been in a race for the bomb that has produced two nuclear nations. Iran has an army as neccessary to keep Iraq out for the last 30 years. Africa is a basket case and nobody down there is going field any sort of armed force that will have to be taken seriously. The middle east won't build because the autocrats don't trust military power. Even in the hands of family, it's too dangerous. There's a reason the US has been in Saudi for decades. We need their oil and they need our protection. (Thankfully, it appears those days are coming to an end). Who does that leave? Turkey? Egypt? Syria?
Our exportation of manufacturing has not hurt our economy. Quite the opposite. We are now creating more and more knowledge workers rather than industrial ones. It allows our companies to leverage cheap labor and lower taxation to sell goods below previous prices. Simple economics. Europe, however, is in trouble for all the reasons outlined. They are demographically in dire straits. Protectionism and confiscatory taxation has killed innovation and industry. It has created a generation of inveterate spongers who live off the dole and expect the state to provide them with everything.
You struggle to figure out how American military might will be eclipsed and for good reason. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. The Chinese have been making strides but again, we're still outpacing them and they can't catch up. They will never be able to take Taiwan. They cannot move the troops across the strait safely. Taiwan has a formidable submarine fleet that would sink their troop and cargo carriers. Their ASW planes and bombers would punish surface and subs alike while the fighters gave them cover. They also have a 200,000 man standing army and 1.5 million in reserves. ALL of these units are focused on repelling an army that invades by sea. Without US help, Taiwan would hold off China. With our help, they have no chance whatsoever. The other problem is that same Taiwanese subfleet need only to sink one or two VLCC's in the deep water channels off China's coast and they're doomed. No more oil in or out save pipelines. They'll never finish their "string of pearls" strategy fast enough to cover for that contingency. Democracy in China is very likely long term. Capitalism has arrived and the "one country, two systems" is quickly falling away. They could end up with some sort of autocracy like Russia under Putin but 25 years is a long way away and making projections out that far is dicey at best.
American withdrawal from the Middle East doesn't mean we give up our committment to Israeli security. The new Iraqi government is already talking about establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. That would certainly change things. In no way, will Israel ever be "easily invaded" to think so is simply daft. They have very very will trained and equipped troops. Do you not remember the Six Day War? They are also a nuclear power. Do you have any doubt that an invading nation would not be on the receveing end of a nuclear bomb if things start to go badly for Israel?
Iran and India as allies? Not very likely. Iran is a theocracy and India is run by and populated with kuffar/polytheists/infidels. Not going to happen. The US is strengthening it's ties with India for very good strategic reason, not least of which is China. Turkey isn't going to be rebuilding anything approaching an empire. They have enough trouble on their own.
What do you think?
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