Austin Bay's latest, The Next Failed State , is a good one. He talks briefly about Canada's problems of late. I cannot see how the Liberal party can survive Adscam. If half the allegations are damning it will be fatal. The government will collapse, probably in the next 3 months or so, and new elections will be called. Without the illegal cash and the stain of the scandal, they will most assuredly lose seats and could become a minority party. Bay speculates that the Partie Quebecois will make significant gains in their stead and finally have the political muscle to sever themselves from Ontario. They may gain the votes but do they have the political will? There's a good chance they may get what they ask for and then get cold feet (this would not be surprising given the climate). They may opt for a much looser confederation with only national defense, foreign policy and free trade across the provinces instead. What Bay omitted is the growing rumblings of western Canadians who want to be free of the East. They see the east as reaping all the benefits of the West's labors and resources. Should the liberals lose seats to both Eastern and Western sepratists, the dissolution of Canada would be certain.
Personally, I see this as a potential boon for Canada. They have become a complacent frozen hinterland that is locked in time by a political system that, by all accounts, is rife with corruption and adroit at making themselves unaccountable. I've read countless tales of graft, corruption and incompetence that goes unpunished by the design of the patronage system that keeps the same people in power year after year. At this point, only devolution can wake Canada from it's long socialist slumber. The east and west coasts would prosper from large coastlines. Fishing, trade and oil would proved ample income. The inner provinces might suffer a bit more. They would have to attune their economies to deal with the US more strongly than they already do. Any items shipped across provinces would then be more costly to get to any other market (or from any other market for that matter). They would have higher transit costs and possible tarriffs to contend with.
Would Alberta and Ottowa join the US? Unlikely. Not only because they would fear losing their Canadian identity but it is likely the US citizens wouldn't want them either. They'd be a drain on the economy and social sector and any Republican with half a brain would see the addition of millions of new Democratic voters to the roles as suicidal.

I am by no means an expert on the Canadian political system. In fact, much of what is said about Candian politics is easily transferrable to the US system as well. The differences are apparent in the manner in which the ruling party has tried to squelch the negative testimony of those involved. That will be their undoing. I read something recently that the opined, "the first price you pay is always the cheapest." A lesson Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon and countless others did not learn.



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

So....the autism thing

For Gerard