Where'd my viewers go?

I've often said that Hollywood hates it's customers. It's not hyperbole or exaggeration. They hate them but want their money. They're like the Carnies of old that referred to everyone as "marks" and "rubes". They placate us with tripe in hopes of wringing cash from us.

Now they're wondering where the audience went.

The broken monopoly of ABC, NBC and CBS haven't been able to keep up with the changing landscape. Viewers no longer see TV as a set time and place thing. Now it's viewed as a block of entertainment that ought not to be on anyone's schedule but our own. You can thank/blame Tivo and DVD's for that. Full disclosure, I'm a TiVo early adapter. I got it as a gift and have nearly wept with gratitude every day since. I may watch TV more frequently but I watch it for less time.

Changing schedules doesn't usually affect me. I hardly know when my shows are on anyway. (Noted exceptions: LOST, The Shield, BSG.) Having kids makes is even less likely I'm going to stick to a schedule.

I listen to the BSG podcast hosted by show creator/producer Ronald D. Moore. He rightly, points out that before the technology existed to track CD purchases, charts were determined by random sampling of record stores around the country. This was neither scientific or even close to reality. Once they implemented the mechanisms to track CD purchases they realized that everything they "knew" about music sales was wrong. Country music was huge. Much much larger than had ever been expected. He expects the same will happen with TV shows soon enough. All those shows you like that get booted because of "low ratings" won't be. They have an audience, it's just a matter of proving it exists. As DVR penetration increases, TiVo will be able aggregate that data and give far more accurate assessments of what people are watching and in what numbers. Given that individual cable and satellite boxes are addressable, it's wonder they haven't implemented some tracking software. The value of that data would be very very high to networks trying to sell ad time.

Entertainment and media are changing. "Siliwood" grows year on year. Eventually, they'll figure out that microbilling is the wave of the future. First you'll subscribe to channels a la carte. That spells doom for channels that are propped up by artificially high subscriber rates (E!, Oxygen, etc.). Thereafter, you'll likely be subscribing to individual shows (as you do now with podcasts). They'll probably offer free pilot episodes or even the first few to hook you so you'll buy in. The audience will get to vote with their wallets. Imagine that it takes $300,000 per episode to produce a show, that means you need between 150-300K viewers/subscribers. That's easily done for most shows that are even remotely popular. Shows like CSI, LOST and 24 garner many times that number weekly. Granted a number of those would depart if they had to pay for the privlidge. Even if you lose 2/3 of that audience you'd still be looking at 4MM viewers and $4MM per episode (assuming $.99 per episode). That's no small beer.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

So....the autism thing

For Gerard